Risk Scenarios for the US’s Strategic Pivot
Brief
Summary
The United States (US) is shifting toward a more force-driven security strategy primarily relying on military operations and economic pressure to counter transnational criminal organizations and limit Chinese, Russian, and Iranian influence in the Western Hemisphere.
Regional outcomes diverge across three core scenarios:
- US-aligned authoritarian cooperation with fragile stability
- Political fragmentation enabling criminal expansion and governance breakdown
- A strategic realignment toward BRICS that reduces US influence and increases great power competition
Each scenario increases the risks of political instability, regulatory fragmentation, and cyber threats, including increased surveillance, cybercrime, and targeting of critical infrastructure and multinational businesses.